Hi Shaun,
I'd have to agree that we're sliding gently towards a recession, but there's so many with a vested interest in denying it that it's unlikely to be accepted for a while yet.
As you say, Big Bad Gordon's made his name off the back of many supporting factors, and been lucky enough to be chancellor during a period when doing nothing would have resulted in a similar period of prosperity.
From a personal level I'm still stunned by the scale of the debt many friends/family have landed themselves in recently, and I've also been living in a house that my landlord has been trying to sell for 10 months now at a price that would've seen it go in a week if this was 2003. Neither are great signs.
Having said that, I currently work for a high street retailer and things are very positive. Sales are on the increase (although this is normal for the time of year), and discounting isn't as heavy as I've seen in the recent past. There's no discussion of recession and no cover-up op here, they believe things are still on the up.
If I had to stick my neck on the line I'd say we're in for a long slow recession which won't dig that deep. Everyone still remembers the last very clearly and, hopefully, there are a few more measures in place to try and support the economy in troubled times.
As final word I'd say the most reliable harbinger of doom is the arrival of a seriously over the top car at the top of the food chain. The F40 and Mac F1 did it for the last recession, and I'd say the Bugatti Veyron is likely to herald dark times ahead.
Cheers,
ali
ps: Never listen to anyone from the City. The concept of Recession is treated with the same derision as white socks, asti spumante, and a night on the beer without a lap dance.....
