Well Shaun (that was the real Shaun and not Shaun's accountant using the BDG ID?
) you've opened an interesting discussion here. There are clearly more economists on this thread than you can shake a stick at.
I've seen discussions about recession ever since I started in financial services in 1987. My advice is, don't start worrying about it until you're forced to off load ALL of your toys, including the beer fridge :P:P
... or off load the house and move into the garage with the bikes and the beer fridge
