Ducati Sporting Club UK - Cambelt replacement

Asking about the risk is only half of the issue. If you are asking about the risk, as in probability, then its quite low.

The consequences,on the other hand, are off the scale.

The result is that for your age of bike, then you should change them NOW.

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I have an S4R 996. I,ll bet its not that simple on mine.They need doing though as I wouldnt like to see the mess if they broke.I have a 900 2 valve as well so I think I,ll do that one first to break me in slowly.

The 4 valvers are not really any more difficult than the 2V bikes. You can make yourself one of those tools with a bit of MDF and some old bits of belt tacked on to it.
Mark