Ducati Sporting Club UK > General > Idle Chat > IS THE ECONOMY GOING INTO RECESSION?

[BDG]

A serious question from me for once.

Although Gordon brown is regarded in certain circles as the most succesful chancellor of recent times (say the last 8 years or so) without writing a huge missive about the UK economy being kept afloat over the past few years by the house price boom, which led to a general feelgood factor, record consumer credit and borrowings keeping retail sales high etc. etc.

I would be very interested in the informed opinion of people here involved in different sectors of business and commerce throughout the country.

My own personal opinion is that i am seeing signs in different areas that we already have a recession underway, rather than a slight downturn; but doubt that it will be broadcast news until 2006.

Why do i make such a statement. I have ran my own business for 20 years and seen the boom and bust cycle before and similar signs exist. We do work for a very wide cross section of business's from govt. depts, manufacturing industry (whats left of it) service industry, legal and finnancial sectors, entertainment etc. so act as a reasonable barometer.

Its not just my business but also members of our trade association throughout the country are reporting a general downturn in trade, quite significant in some cases throughout 2005. In fact when i hear other peoples accounts i'm actually rather pleased that we are fareing much better than most.

In addition debtors are trying to hang on to MY money longer, and i'm hearing of an increase in liquidations and redundancies; or just job uncertainty.

Without wishing to be the harbinger of doom i would be extremely interested in others opinions.

Every year i always prepare optimistic, realistic and pessimistic budgets and am just trying to polish my crystal balls.

[dickieducati]

in a word no.

i can write down a load of stuff as to why, but the overriding factor at the moment is sustainable low interest rates.

[ali]

Hi Shaun,

I'd have to agree that we're sliding gently towards a recession, but there's so many with a vested interest in denying it that it's unlikely to be accepted for a while yet.

As you say, Big Bad Gordon's made his name off the back of many supporting factors, and been lucky enough to be chancellor during a period when doing nothing would have resulted in a similar period of prosperity.

From a personal level I'm still stunned by the scale of the debt many friends/family have landed themselves in recently, and I've also been living in a house that my landlord has been trying to sell for 10 months now at a price that would've seen it go in a week if this was 2003. Neither are great signs.

Having said that, I currently work for a high street retailer and things are very positive. Sales are on the increase (although this is normal for the time of year), and discounting isn't as heavy as I've seen in the recent past. There's no discussion of recession and no cover-up op here, they believe things are still on the up.

If I had to stick my neck on the line I'd say we're in for a long slow recession which won't dig that deep. Everyone still remembers the last very clearly and, hopefully, there are a few more measures in place to try and support the economy in troubled times.

As final word I'd say the most reliable harbinger of doom is the arrival of a seriously over the top car at the top of the food chain. The F40 and Mac F1 did it for the last recession, and I'd say the Bugatti Veyron is likely to herald dark times ahead.

Cheers,

ali

ps: Never listen to anyone from the City. The concept of Recession is treated with the same derision as white socks, asti spumante, and a night on the beer without a lap dance.....

[dickieducati]

Originally posted by ali
, and a night on the beer without a lap dance.....

i dont get it

[BDG]

Originally posted by dickieducati
in a word no.

i can write down a load of stuff as to why, but the overriding factor at the moment is sustainable low interest rates.

go on i dare you write a bit more, makes a change form bikes, bikes, bikes, and bikes.


Interesting answer from the High St Ali, thanks, shame certain suspension providers don't share the same positive approach. oops shouldn't hijack my own thread

[TP]

Originally posted by dickieducati

i dont get it

What is he talking about Dickie?

[Redsps]

I would need to say things are sliding downwards also. Upto the end of 2002 my business was really expanding etc, really good stuff.
last year was an average year for my business, but this year I've seen a big downturn in customers and a noticible reduction in expansion from my exisiting customers, some have jacked things in alltogether, some of which have been trading succsefully for many, many years.
Talking to customers etc, all seem to be very unsure of what lies ahead to be honest, and have adjusted there spending etc accordingly.
Not an ideal situation by any means. Hoping things may pickup in the new year now.

[Edited on 20-9-2005 by Red SPS]

[Edited on 20-9-2005 by Red SPS]

[ScottyB]

This worries me a bit. Loads of folk are walking a fine line and are over committed with mortgages and loans.

The likes of B&Q are moaning that they are seeing the worst sales figures through the doors in years, as are other high street names (Comet & Dixons for example). Is this just scare tactics to make us feel sorry for them??

Is it that people are maxed out on their credit cards and "Ticked" up to the max on loans and remortgages etc having seen large increases in their house values and taken them up to 85%+ whenever possible to fund house improvements, debt consolidation etc etc???

People are now more concious of the interest rates and i know several guys at work who breathed a sigh of relief when they dropped back a 1/4% recently as it gave them a few extra quid to play with as they were maxed out.

People have bought houses when interest rates have been the best for many years and would really struggle to make ends meet if they were to rise (Unless they are on fixed rate deals which can vary in time scale of course)

One mans bad times is anothers good i suppose and the savers would benefit from Interest rate rises??

All complicated stuff, only time will tell..........

[itexuk]

I'd say we are on the borders of a recession and that some sectors of the market are in recession. I also have my own business supplying to the Bedding and Furniture manufacturers and some of my customers have been on short time working for the last 2 to 3 months. Sales to alot of my customers are down by 30% or more.

[BDG]

TP/webteam can this post be turned into a poll to get a vote please or am i too late?

Thanks