In 1Q06, Multistrada sales were down 67%, Superbike sales down 46% yoy, Supersport sales down 32% (in fact, in years to come you can probably truthfully say that a 2006 SS is rarer than any version of the Superlight/FE). The only category that was up was Sport Tourer (up 41%).
Here’s another interesting point. Although motorcycle shipments were down 18% yoy, motorcycle revenue was only down 9% yoy. This means that average revenue per bike was actually up 12%, despite the mix moving strongly away from the Superbikes (23.6% of shipments in 1Q05, and 15.6% of shipments in 1Q06).
Average revenue per bike is now eur8,200 compared to eur7,338 a year ago (or £5,585 and £4,998 in proper money). Now I’m far from being an industrial expert but those look like incredibly good numbers on a wholesale per unit basis. To put this into context, Suzuki got £897 per motorcycle in y/e March 2005 (it’s the latest annual report I can get easily. Yes, I know that Suzuki has a lot of low end bikes/mopeds that will dilute the mix but it’s still a hell of a difference).
Looking back to the presentation, the factory is running around 95% capacity – there’s not a lot more to go really and the upside from getting 100% utilisation is not that great. R&D costs (especially new engine development) needs to be amortised over the number of bikes sold – and it’s obvious that the more bikes you sell, the less it costs you per bike. That’s why you see the same engines being re-used in lots of different models (just look at the car world where you can see essentially the same car from three or four different manufacturers).
What I think it boils down to is that Ducati cannot make the volumes to get a respectable return in the current environment. Whatever the new investors might say in public, I hardly think they are getting that excited about the prospect of a miniscule profit in 2008/9 (I know I wouldn’t be). The upside will come from selling the company to a bigger player in the medium term – think Fiat and Ferrari, BMW and Rolls Royce, Ford and Aston Martin, VW owns Bentley, etc. (the pedants will point out that Porsche owns 20% of VW but you get my point). The latter of each pair make some of the finest cars in the world but they are ultimately too small to survive on their own in the long run.
I’d put a fair bet that Ducati is bought by a major group in the next five years.
Thank you. Ps I’m also available for bar mitvahs and weddings.
Sorry, parts of this post refer to this thread
http://217.199.188.40/xmb/viewthread.php?tid=33178 and this press release
http://www.ducati.com/company/pr_eng...150506_eng.pdf [Edited on 16-5-2006 by chicken]
[Edited on 17-5-2006 by chicken]
16-May-2006, 17:01 
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