Ducati Sporting Club UK > General > Idle Chat > IS THE ECONOMY GOING INTO RECESSION?

[TP]

Originally posted by BDG
TP/webteam can this post be turned into a poll to get a vote please or am i too late?

Thanks

Too late mate, you need to do it when starting the thread.

[Desmondo]

I'd say we're in a decline also. Whilst I make no claims to be some economy know-it-all, I can only tell you what I know from my line of business, and it's not been as good as previous years. We specialise in the printing of takeaway menus for shops all over the country (so we're not hit by financial problems in any single part of the country) and we've noticed a decrease in order value. We're still getting the same amount of customers and jobs, but where orders used to be for 20,000 menus, they're now down to 10,000. 50,000 are down to 30,000, etc.

This says to me that as the takeaway need less menus, they're getting less people through their door. And this says that the general public have less dispossable income.

The printing trade has always been one to see the signs of a recession first, and whilst we're still doing OK, we know of lots of other companies that are struggling. Some have already folded.

[NBs996]

Not sure where to go on this one, although I'm no financial expert.
Sure there's signs of a slow down, but is that because of the recent few years of huge consumer borrowing which people are now trying to repay (including me!), or are we saving for possible recession?

I certainly don't see it in my industry - engineering design - where we're having to turn down big contracts because there just isn't enough manpower in the country to do the work. We're also taking work AWAY from the low cost centres because our clients are able to fund the UK manhour rates. And this time of year is typically very tough in my field.

[Carbon749]

I work for a major oil company, 1 of the top 4 in the world. And before you all start, I have nothing to do with fuel, I work sales and marketing for lubricants ... time for a pun or 2.

Joking aside, as in all sales and marketing organisations we gain and lose customers so it can be difficult to say if we are loosing customers due to a recession or not.

But, I work with distributors who buy our lubes and then sell on to all forms of users. Automotive, commercial (truck, bus, plant etc), manufacturing, agricultural etc

Those distributors that are selling the same volume of oil in 2005 as 2004 have kept the level of business but are making lower profits. Those distributors that are trying to maintain their previous year’s average pence per ltr profit margins are loosing business.

Based on the wide spread customer base these distributors deal with I would say that many markets are struggling and if we are not in recession we are very close to one and the slightest thing could trigger it.

[MJS]

I work in Engineering design in the oil and gas field, and generally have found in the past that recessions in this game are 100% out of sync with the general economy, due to long lead times etc.. in other words, when the economy is flying, there's often a shortage of work in this industry... Right now we're busier than ever, there's more work than I can remember in the last 15 years..

I think the high oil price will continue to hammer western economies, maybe not into recession but all energy bills are on the rise and that hurts everyone - businesses and customers

[Carbon749]

With the high price of crude at the moment, and expected to get higher and stay high for the next 2 years. Any industry linked in to the oil industry and up stream activities (getting the oil out of the ground) will be busy for the near future and will make money hand over fist. If oil companies have upstream operations they are looking at 1 billion profit per month. Check out BP Castrol recent results.

The downside will be the effect on every industry and product that relies on oil or fuel to either "make it or move it". Cost of just about everything will be going up.

[les996]

I am in a similar area to desmondo...print!!!

Have been desktop publishing for quite a few years now, and deal with quite a few printers around the country. Of late, printers are fighting with knock-down prices to get the jobs on the press - usually at a loss...very grim.

I personally tend to be working longer hours (own business) for less money

...just off to cut my wrists now

les

[Edited on 20-9-2005 by les996]

[Gizmo]

Shaun, all the signs in the retail/leisure sector are that consumer confidence is very low, technically we aren't in recession BUT high street spending and retail sales are not increasing and most business would say its not a good year, anyone who increases net profit this year is doing well.

In most retail businesses prices are being driven down by cheap imports from China/taiwan as are margins, this is resulting in manufacturers/distributers and retail only just breaking even at bottom line. Not good and its difficult to consider investing in your business when its like this so long term it doesnt mode well.

Current financial policy from Tony and Gordon seems to consist of keeping economy hanging on purely by house price inflation and borrowing ( currently uk consumer borrowing is highest ever), the reason consumer confidence slipped was because house prices dipped. Gordon needs to fuel bottom end of housing market to keep the money train flowing hence the recent allocation of new house builds,luckily for him we live on an island so houses are at a premium.

long term manufacturing in uk is fooked but hey, why worry so long as your house increases.

we are now just like the US with borrowing habits.

[Davieravie]

And here is me thinking it was just the nature of capitalism.............BOOM AND BUST. Time for the Revolution folks!!!!!

[Mr C]

Car trade is quiet.