Ducati Sporting Club UK > General > Idle Chat > IS THE ECONOMY GOING INTO RECESSION?

[BDG]

A serious question from me for once.

Although Gordon brown is regarded in certain circles as the most succesful chancellor of recent times (say the last 8 years or so) without writing a huge missive about the UK economy being kept afloat over the past few years by the house price boom, which led to a general feelgood factor, record consumer credit and borrowings keeping retail sales high etc. etc.

I would be very interested in the informed opinion of people here involved in different sectors of business and commerce throughout the country.

My own personal opinion is that i am seeing signs in different areas that we already have a recession underway, rather than a slight downturn; but doubt that it will be broadcast news until 2006.

Why do i make such a statement. I have ran my own business for 20 years and seen the boom and bust cycle before and similar signs exist. We do work for a very wide cross section of business's from govt. depts, manufacturing industry (whats left of it) service industry, legal and finnancial sectors, entertainment etc. so act as a reasonable barometer.

Its not just my business but also members of our trade association throughout the country are reporting a general downturn in trade, quite significant in some cases throughout 2005. In fact when i hear other peoples accounts i'm actually rather pleased that we are fareing much better than most.

In addition debtors are trying to hang on to MY money longer, and i'm hearing of an increase in liquidations and redundancies; or just job uncertainty.

Without wishing to be the harbinger of doom i would be extremely interested in others opinions.

Every year i always prepare optimistic, realistic and pessimistic budgets and am just trying to polish my crystal balls.